Market Commentary

  • The Productivity Advantage: Powering Economic Growth in 2026

    Weekly Updates • January 26, 2026

    Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long‑run trend without reigniting inflation. Recent data show U.S. nonfarm business productivity rising 4.9% in Q3 2025, a surge strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth.

  • Unearthing the Metals Melt-Up

    Weekly Updates • January 20, 2026

    The melt‑up in the metals market that defined 2025 has extended its strength into the early weeks of the new year, reinforcing the commodity sector’s position as one of the leading asset classes across global markets. To the surprise of most, gold outperformed the broader equity market for a third consecutive year, surging roughly 65% in 2025 and far exceeding the S&P 500’s gains.

  • Earnings Preview: Double-Digit Streak Likely to Continue

    Weekly Updates • January 12, 2026

    Fourth quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off this week with a dozen banks and asset managers in the S&P 500 slated to report. Results will come from some big names, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Tuesday; Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) on Wednesday; and Blackrock (BLK), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS) on Thursday.

  • Evaluating Our 2025 Forecasts: Equity, Fixed Income, and the U.S. Economy

    Weekly Updates • January 5, 2026

    With 2025 behind us, it’s a good time to celebrate some of our better forecasts from last year while also reviewing some misses we can learn from. In our view, we got more right than wrong last year, but there were some misses among our tactical asset allocation recommendations

  • Fixed Income Outlook 2026: Fed Policy Key | LPL Research

    Weekly Updates • December 22, 2025

    LPL Research forecasts income-driven returns for 2026, with neutral duration, cautious Fed policy, and tight credit spreads.

  • 2026 Market Outlook: AI Enthusiasm Meets Fed Easing

    Weekly Updates • December 15, 2025

    LPL Research examines why the bull market appears ready to continue its run in 2026, powered by AI enthusiasm and further easing of monetary policy from the Fed.

  • LPL Market Outlook Sneak Peek: AI, Earnings & Drivers

    Weekly Updates • December 1, 2025

    Discover key factors shaping 2026 markets — AI adoption, earnings growth, and policy trends in LPL’s Outlook preview - to help investors navigate volatility.

  • Corporate America Cleared a High Bar This Earnings Season

    Weekly Updates • November 24, 2025

    Third quarter earnings season winds down over the next couple of weeks and has once again met Wall Street’s high expectations. After tariff-muddled first quarter results, companies did a good job adjusting to tariffs in the second quarter and continued to do so last quarter.

  • Early Market Keys to 2026

    Weekly Updates • November 17, 2025

    In a year that could easily be defined by a few different words — including but not limited to tariffs, technology, or more broadly, uncertainty — capital markets have plugged along splendidly.

  • AI Infrastructure: A New Pillar of Economic Growth

    Weekly Updates • November 10, 2025

    Artificial intelligence (AI) makes daily headlines, and investors are questioning if businesses’ AI-related investment can continue at this pace. The money spent on data centers, software, and other AI-related investments reveal the structural shifts occurring in the economy.

  • From Micro to Macro: A Busy Week of Market-Moving Data

    Weekly Updates • November 3, 2025

    There was no shortage of headlines on both the micro and macro levels last week. . Earnings season ramped up as nearly half of the S&P 500’s market cap reported third quarter (Q3) results, including a handful of mega cap companies.

  • What Could Spook Markets

    Weekly Updates • October 27, 2025

    With the stock market in record-high territory and up about 35% off the April lows, market participants clearly haven’t been too scared lately.

  • Cockroaches, Canaries, and Credit Markets

    Weekly Updates • October 20, 2025

    In corporate credit markets, early indicators of stress often emerge subtly — not through dramatic dislocations, but through nuanced shifts in borrower behavior and market dynamics.

  • Bull Market Turns 3: Strong Gains, AI Leads the Charge

    Weekly Updates • October 13, 2025

    This bull market enters year four with strong gains, driven by tech and AI. History suggests more upside ahead amid resilient growth and a dovish Fed stance.

  • Q3 Earnings Season Preview: Little Suspense

    Weekly Updates • October 6, 2025

    LPL Research provides a Q3 earnings preview highlighting strong AI-driven growth, resilient margins despite tariffs, and a positive outlook for corporate profits into 2026.

  • Equity Market Melt-Up Cools as Government Shutdown Looms

    Weekly Updates • September 29, 2025

    LPL Research analyzes recent market performance as Fed expectations, strong economic data, government shutdown concerns and more continue to have an impact.

  • No Risk-Free Path

    Weekly Updates • September 22, 2025

    During last week’s press conference after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate decision, Chairman Jerome Powell warned his audience there is no risk-free path for interest rates right now. Inflation is above target and growth appears resilient.

  • The Intersection of Political Uncertainty and Global Debt Markets

    Weekly Updates • September 15, 2025

    LPL Research examines political shifts and fiscal concerns in Japan, France, the U.K., and the U.S. and its impact on bond yields.

  • Stocks Are Following the Market’s Playbook

    Weekly Updates • September 8, 2025

    LPL Research sees bull market strength as stocks follow recovery trends, with AI growth, Fed cuts, and economic resilience driving upside.

  • Calm Before the Storm? September Rally Outlook

    Weekly Updates • September 2, 2025

    Explore September stock market trends, S&P 500 seasonality, earnings growth, and Fed rate cut expectations in LPL Research’s Weekly Market Commentary.

  • Fed Policy Signals Emerge from Jackson Hole Meeting

    Weekly Updates • August 25, 2025

    As central bankers, economists, and policymakers gathered last weekend in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park for the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, the Federal Reserve (Fed) found itself at a critical juncture marked by political pressures, personnel changes, and internal divisions over monetary policy direction.

  • New List Item Earnings Season Delivers: Key Market Takeaways

    Weekly Updates • August 18, 2025

    Second quarter earnings season, which winds down this week and next, has met some of the highest expectations. Strong beat rates, big upside earnings surprises, and increases in estimates during the past four weeks were consistent themes that gave investors very little to complain about.

  • Stocks Hold Strong Despite Policy Headwinds - So Far

    Weekly Updates • August 11, 2025

    We have been pleasantly surprised by how well stocks have handled the sharp increase in tariffs. Since the market low from the early April tariff scare, the S&P 500 Index has gained more than 28%.

  • 7 Key Market Insights From a Wild Week

    Weekly Updates • August 4, 2025

    Last week was one for the ages in terms of the number and magnitude of events and data points for investors to digest. A Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, the monthly jobs report, and the peak week of earnings season would be enough to qualify as a busy week.

  • U.S. Economy Faces Uncharted Waters

    Weekly Updates • July 28, 2025

    Last week, investors were reminded of the persistent impact the pandemic had on many macro models. In particular, the Leading Economic Index (LEI), which has historically been the Conference Board’s accurate leading indicator of the business cycle, still points to a deep, imminent recession as of last month.

  • Midyear Fixed Income, Commodity Markets Outlook, & Crypto

    Weekly Updates • July 21, 2025

    Within fixed income markets, a tug of war has unfolded between two opposing forces, much like the classic tale of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. The benevolent Dr. Jekyll emerges when economic data suggests weakness, which leads to lower interest rates and relief for borrowers.

  • Midyear Stock Market Insights: Challenges and Opportunities

    Weekly Updates • July 14, 2025

    If “tariff” isn’t the word of the year for stock investors so far, then perhaps it’s “uncertainty.” Uncertainty around trade policy dominated the path of the stock market in the first half and will continue to play a large role in the second half.

  • Strategic Time Horizon Supports Allocation to Non-U.S. Equities

    Weekly Updates • June 30, 2025

    With investor focus now squarely back on U.S. equities as new all-time highs are in sight, we dig into why strategic allocations should still consider, despite recent outperformance and multiple expansion, diversification into international equities.

  • China’s Equity Market Diverges: AShares vs. H-Shares

    Weekly Updates • June 23, 2025

    Chinese equities have been a major focus for investors in recent months, with catalysts ranging from DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence (AI) advancements to tariffs and trade negotiations.

  • Inflation’s Importance to Financial Markets Cannot Be Overstated

    Weekly Updates • June 16, 2025

    Inflation’s effects on the economy, monetary policy, and the financial markets are wide-ranging.

  • Q1 Buybacks Boost Stocks Amid Market Recovery

    Weekly Updates • June 9, 2025

    There have been plenty of catalysts supporting the broader market’s recovery from the correction lows set last month.

  • Tariffs and Market Volatility Likely to Stick

    Weekly Updates • June 2, 2025

    There has been no shortage of trade policy curveballs thrown at the market since the White House announced shockingly high reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

  • Can Earnings Catch Up to This Stock Market Rally?

    Weekly Updates • May 27, 2025
    First quarter reporting season was solid, but results didn’t offer much of a confidence boost in the outlook for the rest of the year.

  • Tariff Pause Boosts Sentiment, Fed Steady

    Weekly Update • May 19, 2025
    Investor sentiment dramatically changed after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other members of the Trump administration announced a temporary pause on tariffs with China. 

  • Bulls Are on Trial

    Weekly Update • May 12, 2025

    A busy week of earnings, trade negotiations, and monetary policy meetings left the S&P 500 down around 0.5%. 

  • Finding Value Among the Muni Market Malaise

    Weekly Update • May 5, 2025
    The municipal bond market faced significant volatility in April, driven by spillovers from a turbulent Treasury market. Treasury yields were pressured higher by rising inflation expectations; the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance, reduced foreign demand; hedge fund deleveraging, portfolio shifts toward cash, and structural illiquidity.